Week 2 FGW Update: Congrats to all the 2-0 Kyler Murray owners

With week 2 in the books, we now have a Leaderboard to track. But first, let’s break down the week 2 results.

For an explanation on FGW, I wrote that up here: Introducing the Fantasy Game Wins (FGW) Fantasy Football Player Scoring System.

Who won you the week?

  • Derrick Henry won the week. If you had him in your lineup, all else being equal, you’d have won 97% of the time in week 2. That sounds like a lot for a sub-50 point game, but it lines up perfectly with the actual league data I compiled from 2020.
  • How is it that 2% of Yahoo! leagues are so strange that Henry wasn’t started in Week 2? Aaron Jones at 96% is conceivable. Henry at 98% is bizarre.
  • Interesting to see defenses make it in the top 10 this week. We’ll see if any end up sticking out over the course of the season.
  • I realize I could go back in time and recompile previous seasons to see how they turned out with this system (if I could get my hands on start % data for each week). Having yet to do that, this is all genuinely new to me.

I’ll make a note here – I realized a potential alternate way of doing FGW would be to use “replacement-player” average points scored as a baseline, instead of “average starter” as a baseline (baseline as in, if a player scores that amount, they get 0 FGW points).

The advantage to using replacement players as the “baseline” or “par” would mean that you could more easily use the metric to measure how valuable players are versus true “no value” player, as in one that anyone can get at any time.

The disadvantage to using replacement-player as “par” is it’s tougher to use this metric with this metric if players are winning you games, or losing them.

The Impact portion of the metric would actually be functionally equivalent if we moved “par” around – but applying the % start would yield drastically different results.

Where I stand right now is that the current method makes more sense. % Started doesn’t seem right being applied to a value-over-replacement-player metric. More to come as I keep lazily thinking about this.

Who lost you the week?

  • Rough week for Dak gets reflected here. I would expect the biggest loser each week to be a Quarterback, given their highest baseline/par stat total. This scoring system might reveal how critical the avoidance of QB dud-weeks are to building a successful fantasy team. Remember that Andrew Luck dud back in 2014?
  • Antonio Brown has officially cancelled out his goodwill from Week 1. Doubly so, in fact, since Week 1 his start % was only 37%. As it stands today, drafting Brown has likely hurt you thus far in 2021.
  • CEH is quickly becoming one of my most distrusted active RBs.

Season Leaders Week 1-2

  • The % Start “total” shown here is average % start over two weeks. That can be misleading, as you cannot multiply Impact by % Start to get FGW at the totals level, but I left it on there as a reference.
  • Awesome consistency from Kyler Murray to get on the top of the list. It shows how this scoring system does reward consistency, as Henry’s herculean Week 2 still didn’t vault him all the way to the top.
  • Quite the drop-off after Hockenson at 9. Nick Chubb hasn’t gotten a lot of buzz this season, relatively speaking, so it’s possible that drop-off is actually approximating somewhat of a threshold of fantasy football meta-relevance.
  • Kind of surprised to see Herbert so low with two middling games, compared to CEH’s more genuine duds.
  • The long road back to cancel out Week 1 begins for Rodgers. He took a chunk out of his deficit, but my bet is he’s not above par until Week 5 or so.

WordPress doesn’t allow CSV file uploads, so I’m going to meditate on the best method for loading the raw data for those that want to play around with it. Open the below image in a new tab if you want to peruse the list of all players that have averaged at least a 10% start so far this year.

To Be Continued…

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