Patrick Mahomes Just Had The Worst Week of the Fantasy Season So Far – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

If I were a bit more liberal with specificity in my headlines, the title would read like this:

Patrick Mahomes Negatively Impacted His Fantasy Owners More Than Any Other Player Has in a Single Week So Far This Season – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 7 Update

Mahomes just scored 8.74 points last week. That might seem like a surprising number to earn “worst week of the year” with. Here’s how it stacks up with the second worst week of the year by FGW standards: Aaron Rodgers’ Week 1.

Patrick Mahomes was started by 97% of “not terrible” fantasy football players last week (according to his weekly ranking – which may underestimate it a bit, as he’s Patrick Mahomes, and I might need to refine the way that is calculated). As a result, even though his Week 7 wasn’t as bad as Aaron Rodgers’ Week 1, more fantasy owners felt the brunt of it. So maybe Mahomes had more of a shotgun-method bad week, while Rodgers had a rifle-method bad week.

One extra note – since the maximum negative impact a player can have in a week is -0.50, even a Rex Grossman-esque -5.0 week from a player cannot score worse in FGW unless the player was started in >50% of leagues.

Metric Update 1.1 – The Waller Situation

After updating the % Started portion of FGW last week to reflect the fact that we should ignore an a 18% started, clearly-injured Christian McCaffrey, the Darren Waller situation exposed an obvious hole in this method. Waller was injured at Saturday practice, well after weekly expert rankings were set for Week 7. His real % started came in at 46%, compared to an expert ranking projection of 96% as of earlier in the week.

I need a way to reflect this reality analytically, as researching every injury situation is beyond the scope of this metric. Here’s what I came up with:

If a player’s literal % Started is lower than 50% AND lower than his Expert-Ranking predicted % Started, use the literal % Started. Otherwise, use Expert-Ranking % Started.

This adjustment means that the zombie starts of Christian McCaffrey will be replaced by expert rankings, but Waller situations will be reflected as well. I don’t have a way, yet, of distinguishing between Foster Moreau situations (sudden legitimate increases in % started) and zombie starts, so Moreau will have to wait for his day in the sun.

The reason for the 50% threshold is it appears Waller coming in at 46% is pretty close to the rate at which people respond to late injuries – so a 50%+ start rate is more likely due to odd Joe Public management, rather than auto-bench situations.

Who Won Week 7?

  • Holy crap, Cooper Kupp continues to thrive. On pace for one of the best WR seasons ever.
  • Reminder: Justin Jefferson, the year before dominating as a rookie for the Minnesota Vikings, was the Robin to Ja’Marr Chase’s Batman at LSU.
  • Alvin Kamara lives!
  • If you were surprised by Mike Evans this week, this is your first time owning Mike Evans.
  • A.J. Brown lives!
  • Damien Harris lives!
  • I’m going to go ahead and say the Browns O-line/scheme is fairly formidable. No disrespect to D’Ernest Johnson, but these situations usually reflect a good environment rather than amazing backs.
  • Was this supposed to be the week Allen Robinson came back from the dead? 49% said yes, apparently. They were…wrong.
  • This feels like the first time Darrel Williams really got momentum in fantasy football circles. Too bad.
  • The Darnold and Geno Smith performances are putting the Jets’ woes of the last decade into perspective a bit.
  • Speaking of Geno, it might be time to tuck our Locketts into our proverbial cleavages.

MVP and LVP Watch

  • Derrick Henry with only a slightly above-average week. Guess we can drop him now.
  • Cooper Kupp mustering a legit challenge to Henry now.
  • Justin Tucker is the last kicker standing in the top 10. Like the last blackhead on your nose. Get out the rusty pliers.
  • The MVP list looks a lot like the first round now, with Zeke, Alvin, and Jonathan Taylor all joining the party. I wonder if Jonathan Taylor’s nickname will be JT, or if Jonathan Taylor is such a generic name that it’s almost an anti-Nickname by itself, and it’ll catch on as Jonathan Taylor.
  • Nyheim Hines, unspectacularly bad in fantasy. He’s the living equivalent of “best FA RB available” in 12-team leagues, right?
  • Robert Tonyan with a touchdown! But nobody started the guy. That’s what this metric is intended to expose.
  • DeVonta Smith might be the sneakiest poor performer so far. His projections on the big fantasy sites haven’t really docked his projections, that I’ve seen..
  • With the escape of AJ Brown, Miles Sanders is the new challenger to…
  • Allen Robinson – the bizarro Cooper Kupp of 2021.

The Best and Worst Picks of 2021

  • A new leader! I would be very interested to see how Kupp’s season is measuring up against Randy Moss’ 2007 season – given that (confirmed with Fantasy Football Calculator), Moss was roughly a 4th round pick that year. Quick story: In 2007, in one 14-team PPR league I’ve had going since 2002, a team drafted Moss and Wes Welker set a single-season scoring record that still stands today.
  • Calling it – our new Dynasty WR1 – Ja’Marr Chase.
  • Kyler still at the best QB value pick despite not doing much since Week 2.
  • Two directions for Mike Williams to take now. He will either climb back into the picture as a bona fide WR1, or we’ll all reflect on Mike Williams’ random 2021 hot start.
  • Fournette is far up here despite only averaging 31% started per week so far.
  • Quite the magical season from A-Rob.
  • Surprisingly on the list: Keenan Allen. He’s shared the rock with Mike Williams more than he has any other receiver in recent memory, but my bet is he’s turning it around soon.

And here’s an updated look at rounds 1-6:

Pencils down, Week 7 is officially in the books! Here’s the data you need if you want to earn extra credit.

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