Derrick Henry is who you thought he was – and he let you off the hook.
The biggest way that a player can hurt your fantasy team is if you start him and doesn’t score points.
The second biggest way that a player can hurt your fantasy team is if he takes up a bench slot on your team, but never breaks your starting lineup. He took the spot of another player that could have made a difference. (The perfect bench player is the one with the highest chance of future returns.)
Derrick Henry has won you about 1.44 games in 2021, and that will be his final number for the regular season. How many other players will have a bigger by then?
Because of the extra week in the NFL season, I’m assuming that the most common playoff format for fantasy football leagues will be a 6-team playoff from weeks 15-17.
While we haven’t gotten to the point of considering how to calculate FGW for the playoffs – that will be a doozy – you could make the argument that the primary directive of Fantasy Football is to make the playoffs, anyway. That once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen. Taken to its logical conclusion, it’s fair to set the goalposts of FGW to the last week of the regular season.
By current pace, the top 3 players by FGW after 14 weeks will be Cooper Kupp (2.66), Austin Ekeler (1.76), and…Derrick Henry (1.44).
If you extend the regular season to week 15, only two more players are on pace to pass the big man: Jonathan Taylor (1.48) and Najee Harris (1.48).
If you were to redraft your team today, with the knowledge we have through Week 8, Derrick Henry would be the third most useful player in your quest to make the playoffs.
Who Won Week 8?
- AJ Brown be like, ‘I ain’t no Allen Robinson!’
- Michael Pittman an example of: being the #1 receiver on a team is a good thing. It’s as if, for WR upside, you need to establish yourself by usage pecking order and hope for high scoring games. For RB upside, you need room for your usage to grow (as RB usage CAN grow much more than WR usage).
- Chris Godwin’s turn this week.
- Nice to see Joe Mixon crack the top 10. Not nice against my Jets, but I don’t care this week, because Mike White. Nice handful of days to be a Jets fan.
- Josh Allen, the only QB that perhaps would have been better than Mike White for the Jets this past week.
- We haven’t had the Aaron Jones monster game yet. He’s usually good for at least one 40-burger a season. Soon.
- I survived a 28 point lead against Mahomes and Kelce in my most expensive league this week. I feel like I should turn myself in for theft.
- If Kyle Pitts didn’t score much for the Falcons, and Russell Gage didn’t score much for Falcons, and a tree fell in the woods but nobody was there to hear it…
- Mike Williams is (probably) going to dip below 0 FGW for the year at some point and it’ll be very strange.
- Maybe the same with Jalen Hurts, but I blame that on the Eagles actually holding a lead on his dud here.
- Kyler Murray with his entry into the “worst weeks of 2021” discussion.
MVP and LVP Watch
- Cooper Kupp’s biggest competition for MVP might still be the ghost of Derrick Henry. Kupp could go negative for a few weeks here.
- Austin Ekeler is making me question my “diversify your teams” strategy, where I try to avoid having a player in a disproportionate of leagues.
- No true out-of-nowhere players in the top 10 besides Cooper Kupp. Would be interesting to see how normal this is.
- Tyler Bass? COME ON!
- Don’t look now, but Brandon Aiyuk’s starting to maybe not be terrible every week?
- My team hasn’t been fucked by a TE like this since grade school.
- OBJ taking a big dive here. He could have the staying power to maintain a high enough % started number to catch up to A-Rob.
- I’m getting off the DeVonta Smith “still starting him” train at the next exit. Don’t care about the Hurts-driven volume.
- This was finally the week people got off the A-Rob train, despite the fact that it came off the rails around Week 3 or so. Down to 12% started by the expert approximation.
The Best and Worst Picks of 2021 Update
- Cooper Kupp has gotten you double the value versus draft position as anyone by Derrick Henry.
- Deebo and Ja’Marr are in a pretty tight duel, each having a similar draft slot in Round 7. Nobody else in Round 7 has outperformed their slot.
- Tom Brady outlasting the other young guns.
- I’m really confused by the sudden performance of Darrell Henderson. This is really the same guy as 2020?
- Matthew Stafford quietly creeping onto the list.
- It doesn’t feel like Metcalf, Mixon, or Mike Evans have generated as much happiness as Davante Adams has for fantasy owners this year. If Randall Cobb can have a big week as the #1 for the Pack against Arizona, probably an indicator that nothing is stopping Davante from here on out. Except maybe Jordan Love.
- Dalvin is playing now! Which has not been good for his FGW.
- Antonio Gibson’s 79% started number is really high for very average numbers here.
Here’s the full draft breakdown:
Thanks to everyone that’s followed along so far! Here’s some data to munch on. Don’t choke, small bites.
Also, I have an email thing now. It’s nice to get on the online.