There’s a Good Chance Mike Williams Has Hurt Your Team – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 9 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Attempting the Saturday morning as I was “overcome by events” in trying to get it out on time. We’ll see if this is a better slot!

One of the most common comments I received earlier in the season was “hey, why isn’t Mike Williams like literally the top player on your metric?”

The easy answer here is, for Mike Williams’ solid weeks 1 and 2, he did most of the damage on people’s benches. This was true both before and after my incorporation of expert rankings to try and distill “good” fantasy manager % started rates. But how much did it impact Williams exactly?

I have the power to delete weeks

Hypothetically, if Mike Williams were started near 100% of the time (obviously besides his Week 7 bye), his FGW would be around 0.24 – around the 44th best score, worth a 4th round pick.

His actual FGW? -0.03. So on average, he’s decreased your chances of winning versus an average starter, after considering the fact that you probably didn’t start him weeks 1 and 2.

To be fair to Williams, he had the 116th best ADP in Yahoo! leagues (not an ADP of 116). If you grabbed him at pick 116 he’s actually 0.07 better than what that pick should have gotten you (dFGW = 0.07).

Nonetheless it’s fun to celebrate a counter-intuitive results from relatively intuitive metrics.

Housekeeping

It was needles-out last week after my first hot take of 2021, as new Redditors came out of the woodwork to try and poke holes in my balloon of hubris. In the spirit of continuous improvement, here’s a list of actual upgrades I plan to make to the metric:

  • Seasonality – Does the baseline or distribution of team/player scores change as the season goes from late summer to early winter?
  • Playoffs – How do you incorporate playoff game results, especially for players that decreased your chances of making the playoffs?
  • Weekly Variance – Do scores vary week-to-week so much that’s it worth it to keep track? This would mean that, if a player is above average on a week when everyone else was above average…he was just average.

Who Won The Week?

  • Jonathan Taylor is getting some buzz as a future #1 fantasy pick. We do need someone else to worship with Derrick Henry on a gurney. We have a Derrick Henry shaped hole in our hearts.
  • Nick Chubb could own the 2nd half of 2021 and nobody would be surprised.
  • It’s finally happening for Joe Mixon!
  • Is there something about Arizona #2 running backs filling in a being studs? James Conner, Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake, David Johnson…Andre Ellington…quite the streak.
  • There are parallel universes where Alvin Kamara AND his QB stay healthy, and he cranks out RB1 seasons as a result. Not this one, though.
  • Ja’Marr coming back down to earth a bit. Buy now?
  • Aaron Jones and Tyreek doing Aaron Jones and Tyreek things.
  • ANOTHER Mahomes dud.
  • Josh Allen Week 9 has tied Aaron Rodgers Week 1 for the 2nd worst FGW week of the year! So much for this being the year of the highly-drafted QB.

MVP/LVP Watch

  • If Cooper Kupp just avoids egg-laying with OBJ in town, he’ll cruise to FGW MVP. Another solid week in Week 9.
  • Unless Jonathan Taylor decides otherwise.
  • Going to pretend no kickers are on this list…
  • JOE MIXON HAS ENTERED THE CHAT.
  • Welcome back, Travis Kelce! What happened? Silly Travis, were you lost?
  • There’s probably a lesson in the Wide Receiver LVP domination. Is it that we know better when to start or bench the other positions? Does this confirm Running Backs as a better commodity to spend draft capital on than Wide Receivers? Are the tip-top Wide Receivers more valuable?
  • Rule of Tight End Mayhem: Only in benching does Robert Tonyan have a name.
  • The Tannehill season is reminding me of how much I want to do an offseason project to do things like isolate the impact coaches have on their players.
  • I admire the guts of anyone starting A-Rob at this point.

The Best and Worst Picks (dFGW)

  • No huge surprises on the list, it seems. Well, besides Cooper Kupp, but we’ve talked enough about him this year.
  • Deebo starting to pull away from Ja’Marr in the Battle of Round 7.
  • Tom F*ckin Brady
  • DK Metcalf surviving the Geno Smith Experience reminds me of Sergeant Avery Johnson in Halo somehow surviving the entirety of the Halo 1 story, even though you watched him die like 10 times along the way.
  • Not amazing weeks from Dalvin Cook (0.03) or Christian McCaffrey (0.00), so they’re stuck in the bottom 4 for another week.
  • I’m sure a few people went Saquon/Gibson in rounds 1-2 this year. That’s a tough one to overcome.
  • Chase Claypool is showing up on a lot of lists this week. If not for his 4-TD coming out party last year, I wonder if anyone is really playing him right now.
  • The later rounds look empty with Mike Williams in there as a thick green bar. Mike Gesicki is now all alone as the only positive FGW player after Round 8.
  • Imagine taking Robby Anderson over Ja’Marr Chase this year! Or Juju over Deebo! Thankfully, most people probably don’t double-check their individual league fantasy draft results super frequently unless they find pain pleasurable.
  • Round 3 has recovered a bit. Round 6 is looking pretty rough, with former LVP candidate Damien Harris the lone above-average performer.

More than halfway through year 1 of FGW! Thanks to everyone for the eyeballs. Please accept my offering of a spreadsheet as thanks.

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