What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/
Week 11, by the numbers, was by far the craziest week of the season so far (in my opinion). Fireworks included:
- The biggest week of the year so far (Jonathan Taylor).
- 2 players (Taylor and Austin Ekeler) above the 0.40 FGW mark – when we only had 4 from weeks 1-10.
- The 2 worst single-week FGW performances of the year so far (Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes).
- A new overall leader (Taylor).
- AND, I figured out the running issue I’ve been having with kickers and defense!
Thanks to a tip from Reddit user /u/clean-toad, I took another look at the calculation for Kickers and Defense.
It turns out that in calculating the Kickers’ impact, I was using NOT the average scores for Kickers and Defense, but the standard deviations for each. Specifically, I was measuring Kickers against an “average” of only 4.2 points (compared to 8.5), and Defenses against 5.8 points (compared to 7.7).
I was having so much fun getting angry at Kickers that I didn’t even realize the pain was self-inflicted! Poor Kickers.
Let this be a lesson, kids: Always leave a note. Also, don’t delete your calculations after they’re done. And you will f*ck up from time to time.
Who Won and Lost Week 11?
- The average Jonathan Taylor owner increased their win % this week from 50% to 99%. Though this week probably had some nuances that changed that percentage, that’s what a 51 point game typically does. It’s the 7th best single scoring week for a RB since 1970.
- (Not sure how The Sporting News messes up the rankings there by putting the tie out there for 2nd, then not jumping to 4th.)
- In terms of FGW, I wonder if Clinton Portis 2003/Shaun Alexander 2002/Corey Dillon 1997 would beat out Alvin Kamara 2020 because of lower scoring average starting RBs at the time. WR Jerry Butler’s 1979 50.7 point game is surely the best FGW game ever, though.
- Comparatively tough week for 51-point game beneficiaries, however, because there was a 5-10% chance they had to face Austin Ekeler. I can’t recall two players having quite the same level of STUD in the same week as Taylor and Ekeler just did…I know Trent Green threw for 5 TDs the same week Shaun Alexander had his 5 TDs in the first half of his Sunday Nighter in 2002, but 5 passing TDs is not quite as anomalous. I only remember that because I benched Trent for Brad Johnson that week and missed out on starting him alongside Alexander.
- Justin Jefferson making a bid for the Dynasty WR1 crown again.
- Aaron Rodgers the Yin to Patrick Mahomes’ Yang.
- Nick Chubb is +600 for the rushing title last I checked. Seems like a good bet. This is not financial advice. I just like the stock.
- Some new WRs yelling “F*CK YOUR COUCH” this week: Higgins, Pittman, Cooks, Lamb. We need a new cast of characters with everyone benching A-Rob, Aiyuk, OBJ, and the rest of the early-season couch stompers.
- Another reason why Taylor owners might not have had the standard 99% win % is a lot of them were probably saddled up with a one of these four kamikaze QBs.
- Mahomes AND Prescott beat Mahomes’ Week 7 (-0.28) to become the new one-two on worst weeks of the year. Prescott’s -0.33 will be tough to beat, too, barring an early game injury for a 90%+ started QBs.
- Get this: Jonathan Taylor’s last 8 weeks have a higher FGW score (2.03) than Derrick Henry’s 8-week start to the season. Maybe he actually is the #1 pick next year?
- Is there a real risk of Cooper Kupp’s production dropping off with OBJ now on the team? Probably not, but I had to ask.
- I would go so far as to say the fantasy community as a whole is underestimating Travis Kelce’s impact so far this year. I keep hearing about players and experts saying he’s “not playing like a 1st rounder”. If he isn’t, the bar for first rounder is what, 5 players then?
- Was strange, but not strange, seeing the Deebo stat line on the ticker Sunday: 8 rush, 79 yards, 1 TD. I wouldn’t have been shocked if he became their default RB if the rest of the stable got hurt. Speaking of 49ers receivers running the ball, anyone that used to put TO at Running Back in NFL Street, raise your hand [raises hand].
- Robert Tonyan is back! Oh crap [turns on Fight Club].
- The bottom dropped out for Tannehill. I will make a point here that just because a player is playing consistently for a few weeks doesn’t mean he has a high floor.
- Time to put Courtland Sutton on the shelf next to A-Rob.
- The Eagles on this list are going to get some run, though. DeVonta and Miles aren’t on the shelf yet. I’m not scared, you’re scared.
The Best and Worst Picks, Or So It Seems
- Kupp hanging onto the top value slot. For now.
- Joe Mixon, holy crap he’s been solid.
- D’Andre Swift poking his head up. He’s someone that hasn’t gotten a lot of FGW love, but his owners love him this year for sure.
- Does James Conner give any workload back to Chase Edmonds when he gets back? I’m not sure he does.
- Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill helping the Fantasy Football risk-takers this year.
- A lot of shakeup on the Worst Picks list because of how much Taylor is swinging the expected-FGW-by-pick equation.
- Can we have Geno back?
- Despite the stronger game, McCaffrey still has more room to make up to get off the list than Cook does at this point.
- AJ Brown wanted to keep hanging out with A-Rob, just on a different list. He’s his friend, he just doesn’t really want to be seen with him.
The Full Slate
- If I had to pick one aspect of the draft to comment on this week, it would be that despite getting off the schneid this week (and probably winning games in exciting fashion for those still starting him), Mike Williams entered Week 12 behind Michael Gallup in FGW.
Since I’m clearly underqualified to be doing these calculations without a proofreader, I offer up a spreadsheet to the inspectors again. My cell reference accuracy is more Zach Wilson than Aaron Rodgers, it would seem.