Looks Like I Picked The Wrong Year To Draft The Consensus #1 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 12 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

It’s official – 2021 Christian McCaffrey was a bust. He was injured — twice — and he was stringing him along in between. You couldn’t even clear him off the bench.

And so pass 2021 Christian McCaffrey owners, sons of 1996 Ed McCaffrey owners.

McCaffrey at 1 has a good shot at worst consensus pick this year. When you start at the top, you have the most room to fall. He won’t have a negative FGW, but his dFGW will suck.

If you ever need an example to show your why first overall pick isn’t a guarantee of success, the 2021 draft is a good data set.

Who Won And Lost The Week?

  • Lenny “Asiata” Fournette finally gets his original nickname back, Mr. Come At Me Bro.
  • Joe Mixon just keeps on cranking ’em out. If it weren’t for Jonathan Taylor, he’d be getting buzz as a top pick contender next year.
  • My name is Byron Cobalt, and I dropped Cordarrelle Patterson after Week 1. [Hi Byron].
  • Since I fixed the kicker problem, I can let the kickers out of my basement and back onto the list!
  • Josh Allen has been alternating good weeks and bad weeks since Week 6. He’s like Bills great Eric Moulds, just weekly reverberations instead of yearly.
  • Rough Kittle year, unless you get points for pancake blocks.
  • THERE’S the correction game for Mike Evans!
  • Wonder if cold weather will lead to more weeks where a handful of QBs have killer weeks.

MVP Watch/LVP Watch

  • Jonathan Taylor Thomas still doesn’t have a nickname (to my knowledge). Why not Young Simba?…actually Young Simba was maybe him from weeks 1-3. He’s Matthew Broderick Simba now.
  • Just a strangely consistent week for the top players. Everyone in the top 10 was either above average (positive FGW), or on bye/injury.
  • So apparently Deebo…really can play RB now? I feel like people should be making a bigger deal of this. Maybe the jersey number rules this year are making it look less jarring.
  • Joe Burrow with a quietly rough year for his fantasy owners so far.
  • OBJ jumping ahead of a few fellow Project Mayhem wide receivers this week, going all the way up from being a de-facto A-Rob challenger to suddenly maybe start-able now.
  • Tannehill creeps closer to A-Rob. What we need now is Robinson to have a randomly good week, get started by a bunch of people, then be 2021 A-Rob again. Then he’ll keep the LVP for sure.

They Were The Best Of Picks, They Were The Worst Of Picks

  • Despite the fact that his % started number is below 50%, Fournette is now the #6 RB in FGW this year. Nobody really was starting him through the first three weeks (when he averaged under 8 ppg), then everyone got on the train in time for his great Week 6 (27.7 pts). Very timely and efficient year for Fournette and his fantasy owners.
  • Justin Jefferson’s now above his buddy Ja’Marr. 2022 might seem them both get late first round consideration.
  • McCaffrey owners be like “Come, sing me a song, Clyde. Why should your songs be unfit for my halls?”
  • I still think we’re going to see an Aaron Jones big game this year. Probably in a week when a lot of people are starting AJ Dillon.
  • To me, it feels right that Barkley and McCaffrey are both roughly equally painful first round picks, relative to draft position.

The Full List

  • My “Fresh” observation this week is just how disproportionately prominent a handful of players are after round 4. A few solid but unspectacular players in round 5, round 6 is a ghost town, 7 had Ja’Marr and Deebo and that was it…there might be something to the Stars-And-Scrubs strategy for auction drafts.

I fixed up the excel file this week. One I put out last week had some live links; this one is flat. Just like McCaffrey owners after plummeting off the cliff of Minas Tirith.

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