‘Take a Running Back in the First Round, They Said. It’s the Best Move For Upside, They Said.’ – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 2 Update

For an explanation of FGW, go back to Week 1.

2021 shaped up to be a bad year to have a “good” draft pick slot.

According to my wrap-up column last season, and assumed that a draft played exactly like ADP, picks 7-12 came out with a total FGW 5.22 higher than picks 1-6.

Obviously it shouldn’t work that way, since picks 1-6 have the choice of better players and the gap between player values diminishes as you go. So you’d think 2022 would turn out differently, right?

It is turning out differently, alright. By the new scoring system, Picks 1-6 are ahead of 7-12 by about 0.58 – but 2022 so far has been weird in its own way.

Of the 2022 first round, the 1st through 5th best FGW performers so far are WRs. 6th through 12th are RBs.

“Tell me – are these ‘fantasy experts’ in the room with us, now?”

How did we get here? Let’s reveal it slowly and take a look at Week 2, first.

Who Won The Week?

The weird jump from 0.24 to 0.16 checks out.
  • I keep trying to reconcile Stefon Diggs-the-Bill with Stefon Diggs-the-Viking. Does scheme fit/age really account for the degree to which Thielen was kind of obviously the better receiver in Minnesota ? Is it possible Thielen would be even better than Diggs in Buffalo? Would that make Justin Jefferson something like an alien if he were on Buffalo?
  • Quick side note – no kidding, I just typed out “Jordan Jefferson” and had to reference my list because it didn’t feel right, but I couldn’t figure out on my own what his first name was. The dad effect is real. You cannot avoid it. It shouldn’t be happening to me, and yet even I’m not immune. I used to be able to recite the first rounds of every draft from 2002-2010. My kids are 5, 2, and 0. By the time they’re 18, 15, and 13 I’ll be reminiscing about that time Joe Falco led my Jets to their most exciting regular season win since Jimbo Elliott scored in the Monday Night Miracle.
  • Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle might be something like the offensive equivalent of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The speed is just too much to handle for two separate players. Scheme nightmare.
  • I will gladly take Nick Chubb’s final TD comes with a side of Browns losing.
  • Amon-Ra “Little Equanimeous” St. Brown might actually be really good? BTW here’s that referral link again for the Amun-Re board game again:
  • Cooper Kupp can’t be real.
  • And Mike Williams doing Mike Williams things again.
  • Not a strong week for Justin “Da Man Jordan” Jefferson.
  • Marshon Lattimore should get fantasy points every time he induces Mike Evans into ejection. Not sure why I just phrased it that way.
  • WTF, Jonathan Taylor. Maybe this week playing in Indy we’ll see some Home Improvement.
  • Kyle “2 for 19” Pitts, fool me twice…
  • Does anyone have the time and place for the next TLDOA (Trey Lance Dynasty Owners Anonymous) meeting?
  • While Jeu is the lowest FGW scorer this week, JuJu takes the lowest non-injured scoring slot. It feels like he never left.

Season Leaders

Yeah let’s get those trophy names on there, nice
  • While I’m encouraged by the Jets holding what might be a beast-mode 2022 Lamar to a mediocre game, I’m less encouraged that we share a division with Josh Allen.
  • Speaking of division, if you divide D’Andre Swift’s scoring by his touches, the result is a large number. Wonder how he’ll rank amongst the 2010s Georgia RBs when all is said and done.
  • Saquon Barkley is officially on borrowed time. This must be what Mets fans feel like.
  • Kickers should not be in fantasy football any more than Punters should be in fantasy football. It’s a monkeys and the firehose situation – we’re just doing it because they had to choose players with official scoring in the pre-internet fantasy football days. Same with Team Defense, which should be IDP or nothing.
  • Derrick Henry, wow. I kept calling him the Terminator last year and I guess we’re maybe entering the Terminator 3 territory? I have to watch that to get some references ready.
  • As a reminder with Elijah Mitchell and Dak Prescott here, there’s a replacement factor when a higher pick is unavailable.
  • Wouldn’t be an FGW column without Allen Robinson making an appearance.
  • Speaking of replacements, I wonder where Tom Brady’s tablet must have bounced after he threw it. There’s, like, a ton of people around the bench – how does it not hit someone? Also, his tablet throwing form is very similar to his football throwing form. A lot of touch on the throw. Actually, maybe it didn’t hit anyone.

The Full List

Small text is bad for your eyes but good for your memory
  • There it is – the top 5 first rounders are all receivers. Then come the 7 RBs.
  • dFGW is back! That’s FGW adjusted for draft slot. I’m using last year’s equation for a bit but will roll in this year’s data after a few weeks.
  • There are teams out there with Stefon Diggs, D’Andre Swift, AJ Brown, and Lamar Jackson. They might be even better than 2-0, they might be 4 and -2 at this point.

If you have Brady and Zeke on your team, just remember, we’re all going down with this ship together. It has been a privilege and an honor.

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