Uncategorized – Byron Cobalt's Lazy Analysis

In One Game, Ja’Marr Chase Became The 6th Best Fantasy Asset of 2021 – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Season Recap

What is FGW? Check it out here:
https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

I realized this week that “Fantasy Games Won”, as I conceived it, is really a regular season metric. The original logic for coming up with it went like this:

Points are an incomplete measure of fantasy success, because not all points are scored have an equal impact on your chances of winning. What matters is your chances of winning.
You can calculate the impact a player has on your chances of winning games, and track that across a full season instead.

I was missing the logical conclusion to this train of thought:

Regular season wins only matter insofar as they increase your chances of winning a championship.

Dalvin Cook Just Found Out That He Was The Consensus #2 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 14 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Dalvin Cook has actually gotten to the point where he has arguably earned his spot in the first round. Maybe not the #2 pick, but he’s actually #11 on the year in Fantasy Games Won. Nearly half of his FGW score came in Week 14, which doesn’t sound like the #11 player on the year, but it is.

Now, whenever I’ve brought up Cook’s struggles this year, a few people have rightfully chimed in with “But you gotsta have Mattison if you have Dalvin Cook!” If you did pull off the handcuff, he’s what you’re looking at each week:

There’s a Good Chance Mike Williams Has Hurt Your Team – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 9 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Attempting the Saturday morning as I was “overcome by events” in trying to get it out on time. We’ll see if this is a better slot!

One of the most common comments I received earlier in the season was “hey, why isn’t Mike Williams like literally the top player on your metric?”

The easy answer here is, for Mike Williams’ solid weeks 1 and 2, he did most of the damage on people’s benches. This was true both before and after my incorporation of expert rankings to try and distill “good” fantasy manager % started rates. But how much did it impact Williams exactly?

I’ve decided I’m going to do stuff in public now…

You are what you do, not what you say you’ll do.
Carl Jung

I’ve spent a lot of time and effort in my life working on projects and analyses that I never intended to share with anyone else.

I’ve been creating sports “simulation” leagues, primarily in Microsoft Excel, since about age 13. These are leagues with imaginary teams, imaginary players, sometimes invented sports, and relatively simple algorithms for determining the results of “games”. Running season-after-season of simulations created a “world” with its own history of champions, great players, memorable “games”, and more. I did this simply because I like creating these worlds and hitting a fast-forward button that didn’t for the real life sports I loved to follow.

Could others have enjoyed following these “worlds” if I had shared them?