In One Game, Ja’Marr Chase Became The 6th Best Fantasy Asset of 2021 – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Season Recap

What is FGW? Check it out here:
https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

I realized this week that “Fantasy Games Won”, as I conceived it, is really a regular season metric. The original logic for coming up with it went like this:

  1. Points are an incomplete measure of fantasy success, because not all points are scored have an equal impact on your chances of winning. What matters is your chances of winning.
  2. You can calculate the impact a player has on your chances of winning games, and track that across a full season instead.

I was missing the logical conclusion to this train of thought:

Regular season wins only matter insofar as they increase your chances of winning a championship.

Continue reading “In One Game, Ja’Marr Chase Became The 6th Best Fantasy Asset of 2021 – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Season Recap”

It’s Officially Down to Cooper Kupp vs. Jonathan Taylor for Fantasy MVP – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 16 (Playoffs) Update

What is FGW? Check it out here:
https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

While everyone was cleaning up mountains of wrapping paper and tissue paper in order to have a tidy New Year’s Eve, I left the tissue paper for the dog to eat and focused on cleaning up the FGW metric in order to have a tidy playoff calculation.

Like the aforementioned wrapping paper, however, I ended up taking an aspect of the metric that needs attention, made a pile, and shoved it in the garage.

To elaborate…

Continue reading “It’s Officially Down to Cooper Kupp vs. Jonathan Taylor for Fantasy MVP – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 16 (Playoffs) Update”

‘Twas The First Week Of Playoffs, And All Through The Leagues, Stuck Managers Were Feeling Dak Prescott Fatigue – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 15 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here:
https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

‘Twas the first week of playoffs, and all through the leagues, stuck Managers were feeling Dak Prescott fatigue.
Opposing teams’ lineups were scoured with care, in hops that that Lions’ St. Brown won’t be there.

The players were nestled all snug in their slots, while hoping their testing would show COVID-nots.
My wife against Ertz, and myself against Pitts, were hoping some ends would take typical shits.

Continue reading “‘Twas The First Week Of Playoffs, And All Through The Leagues, Stuck Managers Were Feeling Dak Prescott Fatigue – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 15 Update”

Dalvin Cook Just Found Out That He Was The Consensus #2 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 14 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Dalvin Cook has actually gotten to the point where he has arguably earned his spot in the first round. Maybe not the #2 pick, but he’s actually #11 on the year in Fantasy Games Won. Nearly half of his FGW score came in Week 14, which doesn’t sound like the #11 player on the year, but it is.

Now, whenever I’ve brought up Cook’s struggles this year, a few people have rightfully chimed in with “But you gotsta have Mattison if you have Dalvin Cook!” If you did pull off the handcuff, he’s what you’re looking at each week:

Continue reading “Dalvin Cook Just Found Out That He Was The Consensus #2 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 14 Update”

I Know It Was You, DeVonta Smith… You Broke My Heart – Fantasy Games Won Week 13 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Throughout the beginning of 2021, certain players exposed themselves as being Fantasy Football rats. Robert Tonyan, Brandon Aiyuk, Miles Sanders. Allen Robinson was the Mr. Orange for some, his owners entering Week 7 cradling the bloodied Bears wideout in their arms.

By about week 8, it seemed we had mostly sniffed the rats out of our ranks. Coinciding with that, the FGW LVP rankings seemed to calcify, with A-Rob leading the way. Safely out of starting lineups by the halfway point, he wasn’t hurt your lineup anymore.

It turns out there was another rat, and a fairly high-ranking officer as well. Many experts had him has a “hold” throughout the season, occasionally propping him up as a breakout candidate for a given week. A few strong weeks in the middle of the season earned our trust. But Week 13 was DeVonta Smith’s final betrayal.

Continue reading “I Know It Was You, DeVonta Smith… You Broke My Heart – Fantasy Games Won Week 13 Update”

Looks Like I Picked The Wrong Year To Draft The Consensus #1 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 12 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

It’s official – 2021 Christian McCaffrey was a bust. He was injured — twice — and he was stringing him along in between. You couldn’t even clear him off the bench.

And so pass 2021 Christian McCaffrey owners, sons of 1996 Ed McCaffrey owners.

McCaffrey at 1 has a good shot at worst consensus pick this year. When you start at the top, you have the most room to fall. He won’t have a negative FGW, but his dFGW will suck.

Continue reading “Looks Like I Picked The Wrong Year To Draft The Consensus #1 Pick – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 12 Update”

Jonathan Taylor Stole Cooper Kupp’s Belt While He Was Sleeping – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 11 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Week 11, by the numbers, was by far the craziest week of the season so far (in my opinion). Fireworks included:

  • The biggest week of the year so far (Jonathan Taylor).
  • 2 players (Taylor and Austin Ekeler) above the 0.40 FGW mark – when we only had 4 from weeks 1-10.
  • The 2 worst single-week FGW performances of the year so far (Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes).
  • A new overall leader (Taylor).
  • AND, I figured out the running issue I’ve been having with kickers and defense!
Continue reading “Jonathan Taylor Stole Cooper Kupp’s Belt While He Was Sleeping – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 11 Update”

Marquise Brown is King of the Bench – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 10 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

One of the cool things – maybe the whole point – about keeping FGW stats is the fact that we can actually see which players have “wasted” the most performance on the bench.

The life of a Fantasy Football manager is having a player on your team have a huge week on the bench, followed by you starting him when he poops the bed. Straight to the bench, he goes off, you go off, life goes on.

Hollywood Brown by raw performance has been a near top 5 WR (8th most points scored, 6th biggest raw “impact” number), but he’s done almost all of his “performing” on the bench. His Fantasy Games Won number is 0.02, good for WR19 – merely an average starter.

Continue reading “Marquise Brown is King of the Bench – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 10 Update”

There’s a Good Chance Mike Williams Has Hurt Your Team – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 9 Update

What is FGW? Check it out here: https://byroncobalt.com/2021/09/19/introducing-the-fantasy-game-wins-fgw-fantasy-football-player-scoring-system/

Attempting the Saturday morning as I was “overcome by events” in trying to get it out on time. We’ll see if this is a better slot!

One of the most common comments I received earlier in the season was “hey, why isn’t Mike Williams like literally the top player on your metric?”

The easy answer here is, for Mike Williams’ solid weeks 1 and 2, he did most of the damage on people’s benches. This was true both before and after my incorporation of expert rankings to try and distill “good” fantasy manager % started rates. But how much did it impact Williams exactly?

Continue reading “There’s a Good Chance Mike Williams Has Hurt Your Team – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 9 Update”

You Had One Job…and it was to Draft Jalen Hurts – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 6 Update

The above advice is directed at any fantasy managers that used the Late Round Quarterback strategy this year, or fantasy managers that played in leagues with average joes where quarterbacks are just irresistible after that draft bell goes off.

Before explaining this, I’ve decided to start aligning the metric to ADP alongside the usual numbers. It seems like at least 25% of people that have followed this metric this year have come away thinking Fantasy Games Won is already a metric measuring games won vs. ADP. It’s an understandable intuition – after all, the (arguably) main way you win in fantasy is via maximizing value at each draft pick/auction dollar.

The metric isn’t that, though. It’s measuring games won vs. average performance. So the first rounders should have higher FGW scores than the second rounders, and so on.

So I’ve begun calculating Draft-adjusted Fantasy Games Won (dFGW) so that we can not only track player performance, but player value as well.

Continue reading “You Had One Job…and it was to Draft Jalen Hurts – Fantasy Games Won (FGW) Week 6 Update”